AI data centres, Alberta's accelerating energy needs will increase need for nuclear to hit net zero, experts say

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BANFF — Future electricity needs will have to be met partly with nuclear power, an energy source that experts argue is entering a “renaissance,” attendees heard Friday at the Global Business Forum.

A growing push to build nuclear power plants and small modular reactors is being fuelled by the immense electricity demands that will be created by growing populations and artificial intelligence data centres, industry players and experts said.

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“We are having a nuclear renaissance, in my view,” said Jackie Forrest, executive director of the ARC Energy Research Institute.

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Nuclear remains a largely underused energy source in Canada, and plans to use it in Alberta remain at least a decade away, Premier Danielle Smith said earlier this year. Alberta is developing a framework for the private sector, Smith said at an April conference, and is also waiting to see Ontario bring its first reactor to the market later this decade. Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPG) is aiming to be the first company in North America to build a 300-megawatt small modular reactor in Darlington, Ont.; it’s aiming to be commercially viable by the end of 2029. (A public hearing is scheduled next week for the plan.)

Edmonton-based Capital Power and OPG announced a partnership in January to assess the feasibility of developing SMRs in Alberta. The province is also working with Saskatchewan to develop its regulatory framework.

Alberta’s approach to follow industry first adopters is in keeping with many other jurisdictions considering adding nuclear to their grids.

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“There’s a real game of, ‘someone else should move first on this,’ ” said Chris Levesque, CEO of Seattle-based TerraPower, a nuclear company founded by Bill Gates.

Kim Lauritsen, OPG’s senior vice-president of enterprise strategy and energy markets, said the company is taking the “first-mover risk” when it comes to funding. “Somebody’s gotta go first, and we’ve seen the benefits to our grid,” Lauritsen said.

Alberta’s power grid has been stabilized this year by the addition of new natural gas generation, though that capacity will not sustain the province through the next decade, Forrest said.

“I’m a little concerned about the level of uncertainty. We actually still do need investments in Alberta. We have some new natural gas generators that came on (this year), but if you look at the projections out three, four years, we’re going to need new investment,” she said.

This urgency comes amid the backdrop of Alberta’s rapidly growing population, along with significant legislative targets set by the federal government that will dramatically increase electricity demand. At the same time, AI data centres, known for being electricity mega-users, will likely require major additions to the grid. The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) wrote in its most recent outlook that data centres could create shocks to load growth in Alberta in the mid-term.

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The Alberta government has sought to attract data centres to the province; Technology Minister Nate Glubish said earlier this year that he wants Alberta to be the data centre capital of Canada.

The International Energy Agency has likewise predicted about a third of additional global electricity demand by 2026 will come from the data centre sector alone. (In Ireland, it notes in its analysis and forecast to 2026, data centres now account for 17 per cent of the country’s electricity demand — the equivalent to the consumption by all urban dwellings.

Energy economist and author Peter Terzakian said he’s not confident that “we are going to be able to fulfil the surge in power demand that is potentially going to be coming from AI.”

As electricity grids move toward targeted net-zero 2050 goals, nuclear should feed between 20 to 30 per cent of a region’s electricity needs to complete a carbon-free grid, Levesque said in a later discussion.

Increased public persuasion will also be needed during the years these projects are developed, as nuclear energy still does not have full public support, particularly in regions without existing nuclear infrastructure, Lauritsen said.

“It’s the public perception that we have to deal with,” Lauritsen said.

“When we’re now looking to move into new jurisdictions, it’s leaving enough time to educate . . . it does take time.”

— With files from Chris Varcoe

mscace@postmedia.com
X: @mattscace67

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