Braid: A heavily edited Green Line will be built because the province now has no choice

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A key question for Calgarians is lost in gusts of Green Line wind.

Will there even be a Green Line LRT project? Or will the whole thing collapse under a load of windup costs and recrimination?

The power now lies with the province. Devin Dreeshen, the transportation minister, makes a promise — again.

“My hope is when we have this new alignment by the end of this year, we can share with the city, share with Calgarians, and when we get their thumbs up, then we’ll be trying to build it as fast as possible,” he told the CBC.

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“Once we get agreement on a line that makes sense, an alignment that actually stretches down into the southeast part of Calgary, then we will commence construction as soon as possible.”

Dreeshen doesn’t quite explain what he means by “thumbs up.” If city hall doesn’t agree with the provincial plan, will the province go ahead even against local resistance?

Yes. Construction seems inevitable, for both practical and political reasons.

The province officially agrees that a line is essential. For the UCP to take full responsibility, and then screw it up, would be a political disaster for the ages.

Conversely, success means political gain. The UCP needs Calgary to win the next election. The Green Line was becoming a continuing fiasco that could endure into pre-election months.

By taking over the project, and actually getting it built, the UCP will claim they heroically rescued it from more years of uncertainty and rising costs.

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You can almost see the 2027 campaign ads — UCP, the party that got it done for Calgary.

There’s another factor that virtually guarantees the line will be built.

Winding up the whole thing now, with work going on, contracts signed and workers hired, could become a financial scandal.

Perhaps the most important words uttered Thursday came from the Calgary Construction Association.

“The provincial government’s decision to unilaterally claw back funding for the Green Line LRT sets a concerning precedent for all future infrastructure projects across Alberta,” the organization said.

“This move sends a clear signal that no project, regardless of its scope or significance, is safe from unexpected funding cuts.

“The resulting uncertainty introduces a huge element of risk for contractors and businesses involved in provincial projects, undermining confidence in the stability and reliability of government commitments.

“If this trend continues, it could jeopardize future investments, delay critical infrastructure developments and hinder economic recovery efforts across the province.”

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That’s a real concern. And the province has already gone some distance down this risky road with its suspension of green energy projects. Alberta took a hit both to investment and reputation.

For all these reasons, the project now seems bulletproof. It will get done because the province has left itself with no choice.

But once again, how?

The province is going to commission the design it wants, from a consultant it chooses.

After that, it’s unclear whether the government will then manage the project, either in-house or with a newly created body.

(It’s even possible that Calgary’s Green Line Board could do the job under the provincial wing — although I doubt it, given the despair and muted hostility shown at Wednesday’s council meeting.)

The questions go on and on. Will the province actually own the Green Line? Pay for all its future maintenance? Hire and pay the crews?

Or would all that be contracted back to the city, which after all does have staff and expertise?

Other provinces have provincial transit authorities to handle these big projects, but they’re no guarantee of smooth sailing. For proof, just search Toronto’s Eglinton Crosstown Line.

The Calgary Green Line will probably end up as an awkward province-city hybrid.

But there will be trains on tracks. I’ll bet right here that in 2027, ribbons will be cut on the first portions of the Green Line, just before the election.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald.

X: @DonBraid

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