Nelson: Smith vs. Nenshi — Let's get ready to rumble

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The phoney war is done.

Politically, it’s similar to that eerie winter calm following the outbreak of the Second World War in the fall of 1939: Alberta holding its collective breath awaiting the looming showdown between Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP government and the New Democrat Opposition.

There were a few minor skirmishes over the past 12 months, but the NDP leadership question meant taking on the Tories was always secondary to who’d replace Rachel Notley as head honcho.

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Well, that particular issue’s as good as settled, even if the actual vote won’t be held for another few weeks.

It will indeed be our former mayor, Naheed Nenshi. Though it might annoy some NDP stalwarts in Edmonton who toiled in the party trenches for years, this garrulous newcomer — one who converted from purple to orange only when the top job was on offer — is a shoo-in.

That’s because his arrival into the leadership fray was accompanied by a big jump in party memberships, especially in Calgary. In fact, our city’s accredited NDP faithful (faithful at least until Nenshi tells them otherwise) now outnumbers those in Edmonton by almost two to one.

There’s no race left to run, other than who among Nenshi’s remaining leadership rivals will accept the inevitable and back him before the vote, thereby guaranteeing a shadow cabinet post. (All under the guise of party unity, of course.)

So, come summer, it’ll be the Smith and Nenshi showdown in Wild Rose Country.

Smith and her government certainly won’t complain about the lack of effective opposition since the provincial election a year ago.

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Let’s face it, that vote was no sure thing, not with many old-fashioned Tories in the decisive battleground of Calgary having concerns about the viability of Smith as a serious and effective leader.

During her first months in power as a party-elected premier, Smith alarmed a fair number of the Progressive Conservative crowd by stubbornly insisting on refighting the COVID wars, at a time when many Albertans just wanted to forget the whole dreary episode.

But, finally, the penny dropped, as it often does with politicians when election day looms.

Smith smartly passed the COVID baton to Preston Manning, which he later dropped in spectacular fashion, and instead concentrated on beating the same piñata Alberta premiers have always found to be a winning strategy — the feds in Ottawa.

And with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his sidekick, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, rightly cast as the evil twins of federal overreach, Smith grew into the premiership, especially as the NDP Opposition was barely going through the motions.

Despite some serious initial concerns, Smith has gradually and professionally assumed the mantle of premier. Sure, she might shoot from the hip, but that’s never been an impediment to popular approval in this province.

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So, Smith and Nenshi, two former classmates at the University of Calgary, will soon be the most important politicians in Alberta by a country mile. The fact they go way back just adds spice to the drama. But it also accentuates just how important this city has become in Alberta politics. It’s the ultimate prize because it’s the only one truly up for grabs.

There’s no way Nenshi will strip rural votes from the UCP. Notley at least was raised in the Peace River region and her dad represented Fairview. Having a Harvard stamp on your resume and boasting of being the first Muslim mayor of a major North American city counts for diddly with most hinterland folk.

Could Smith’s lot make inroads in the capital? That’s an uphill task. Such is politics that the revival of the provincial Liberal party might help, as it would split the opposition vote. But until Trudeau departs, that isn’t happening.

The stage is set with Calgary the battleground. Smith vs. Nenshi: the best political showdown in the entirety of Canada.

Please, pass the popcorn.

Chris Nelson is a regular columnist.

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